Crypto market rose on Tuesday, but the CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index held steady at 44, leaving it right on the line between fear and neutrality. This indicates that many traders remain cautious, waiting for clearer confirmation before re-entering the market.

Seasoned investors, however, often view such caution as a sign of significant upside potential ahead. Much of the focus is now on Ethereum, since ETH’s role as the largest altcoin often signals the next move for the broader market.

If Ethereum turns bullish and looks set to break above $5,000 in the coming weeks or months, it could mark a return of momentum to altcoins, with capital flowing into higher-risk tokens. That prospect is already pushing some traders toward small-cap projects with higher growth potential, such as Bitcoin Hyper (HYPER), which has already raised nearly $15 million in its presale with daily inflows of $200K–$300K.

Bulls eyeing $9,000

Current ETH forecasts are supported by rising institutional adoption. BitMine’s continuous accumulation strategy is being compared to Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin playbook, reinforcing demand pressure. Combined with higher on-chain activity and Ethereum’s deflationary token mechanics, fundamentals are tilting bullish. ETH also hit a record $9B in stablecoin inflows yesterday, another indicator of institutional participation.

CryptoElites highlighted that Ethereum has finally broken a key long-term resistance, calling it a “classic breakout and retest scenario.” Based on this, analysts see a path toward $5,000 and possibly $9,000 in 2025—more than doubling from current levels below $4,300. Donald Dean echoed this, citing a falling wedge breakout with targets at $5,766, $6,658, and $9,547, supported by volume shelf accumulation.

At $9,000, ETH’s market cap would expand by ~$500B, fueling capital rotation into smaller altcoins. Projects like HYPER are expected to capture outsized gains if that scenario unfolds.

ETH/USD building momentum above $4,600

Ethereum has continued its September rally, stabilizing near $4,639 after gaining more than 13% off its $4,070 low. Market cap now stands around $560B, with $27.9B in daily volumes—signaling strong conviction from both retail and institutional players.

Institutional inflows are being further boosted by US spot ETH ETFs. Since launch, they’ve attracted $11B, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum leading the way. Whale accumulation is also notable: wallets holding 10K–100K ETH added 6M tokens over summer, raising total holdings to 20.6M ETH.

Exchange balances are down to 18.8M ETH—lowest since 2016—while staked ETH hit a record 36.2M. This supply squeeze is amplifying price reactions to fresh demand.

Technically, ETH/USD is trading in an ascending channel, confirmed by a breakout above $4,450 and strong bullish engulfing candles. Key supports lie at $4,550 and $4,425 (aligned with the 50-day SMA), while resistance clusters around $4,760, $4,945, and $5,135. RSI cooling from 69 to 60 shows healthy consolidation without breaking structure.

Network strength backs the rally

Ethereum’s network fundamentals remain robust: daily transactions reached 1.7M, active addresses are at 800K, and smart contract calls exceeded 12M per day in August. Trading volumes also surged 12.3% to $43.4B in 24 hours, with On-Balance Volume showing accumulation ahead of the rally.

Long-term outlook: $15K in play?

If ETH secures a decisive breakout above $5,000, analysts suggest it could pave the way toward a long-term target near $15,000—driven by ETF demand, corporate treasury adoption, and Layer 2 scaling.

Most US stock indices rose at the start of trading on Tuesday, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 reaching fresh record highs as investors awaited remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Several other Fed officials are also scheduled to deliver key comments today, while Powell is expected to speak later during a luncheon hosted by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce in Rhode Island.

As for trading performance, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.6% (302 points) by 15:13 GMT to reach 46,688. The broader S&P 500 index edged up 0.1% (3 points) to 6,696, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.2% (53 points) to 22,735.

Nickel prices declined on Tuesday as the US dollar edged higher against most major currencies, while investment funds continued to bet that the industrial metal may have reached a bottom.

It is difficult to believe that nickel once surged so dramatically it nearly caused a collapse of the London Metal Exchange (LME) just two years ago. Yet for most of this year, the LME market has drifted sluggishly near five-year lows, hovering around $15,000 per metric ton.

Nickel, used in stainless steel production and electric vehicle batteries, is weighed down by a massive supply glut fueled by Indonesia’s output boom. Daily stockpile reports from the LME reinforce this, with registered and unregistered inventories rising steadily to 308,000 tons — the highest since the exchange began publishing off-warrant data in early 2020.

Funds Turn Bullish Despite Weak Market Signals

Funds had been betting against nickel last year, maintaining net short positions until June. While many investors remain bearish, long positions have been building since mid-April. Net long contracts now stand at 45,321 — equal to 272,000 tons — the most bullish stance since March 2022, when nickel prices spiked so violently that LME halted trading.

Still, three-month nickel futures on the LME have been stuck between $14,800 and $16,000 since May, offering little momentum. The bullish case appears to rest on the collective logic that if nickel cannot fall further, it must eventually rebound.

Indonesian Supply Boom Pressures the Market

Indonesia’s production surge has flooded LME warehouses. Chinese-origin nickel within LME inventories has risen from zero in August 2023 to 65% by the end of last month, driven by shipments of Indonesian ore refined into intermediates and sent to China for further processing. Indonesian-branded nickel also began entering the system directly last year, with 8,838 tons recorded in August.

Given the near-daily inventory increases, the resilience of nickel prices is striking, leading some investors to believe the metal may have found a floor near production costs.

Can Indonesia Rein In Output?

Any sustained recovery in prices depends largely on whether Indonesia curbs runaway production. Most other producers have been forced out, with around half a million tons of supply exiting the market in recent years, according to Macquarie analysts. By contrast, Indonesia’s output continues to soar, rising 21% year-on-year to 1.3 million tons in H1 2025, or 69% of global production.

Signs are emerging of tighter regulation, including government task forces seizing mining land lacking forestry permits. The strongest tool remains mine production quotas, with Jakarta planning to reinstate annual caps next year to improve governance and balance supply.

Meanwhile, ore availability has been constrained by delays in permits, poor weather, and declining grades, even prompting Indonesia to import small but steady volumes from the Philippines since early 2024. Whether the government tightens further will decide the outlook — and nickel bulls can only hope it does.

Elsewhere, the US dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.4 by 14:56 GMT, hitting a high of 97.4 and a low of 97.2. Spot nickel prices fell 1.1% to $15,182 per ton by 15:07 GMT.

Bitcoin traded largely stable on Tuesday but extended losses following a massive $1.5 billion wipeout in the digital derivatives market during the previous session, as traders braced for heightened volatility ahead of one of the largest options expiries in the market’s history.

Investors were also awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day, which could offer fresh signals on monetary policy direction after last week’s rate cut.

At last check, the world’s largest cryptocurrency was down 0.1% at $112,711.6 by 01:55 a.m. ET (05:55 GMT), hovering near a two-week low.

$1.5 Billion Liquidations… and Powell in Focus

Bitcoin slid more than 3% on Monday, briefly breaking below $112,000 before trimming some of its losses. Data from Coinglass showed that roughly $1.5 billion worth of long positions across crypto markets were liquidated in a single day, marking the largest shakeout in months.

More than 400,000 traders saw their leveraged bets wiped out. Ether dropped as much as 9%, while altcoins like Dogecoin also suffered sharp declines.

Reports indicated the selloff was fueled by overleveraged positions and thin liquidity, which amplified price swings. Losses were further compounded by options traders positioned for outsized market moves.

Massive Options Expiry Ahead

The market now eyes a major expiry of crypto options on Friday. Data from Deribit suggest that over $23 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ether contracts are set to expire, making it one of the largest such events on record.

Fed Policy and Inflation Data in Spotlight

The Federal Reserve remains the central focus this week. Powell’s speech follows remarks on Monday by Governor Stephen Miran, with several other Fed officials also scheduled to speak in the coming days.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, while its “dot plot” indicated the possibility of two more cuts this year. However, officials emphasized a cautious tone, stressing that inflation remains above target and that the pace of easing will depend on incoming data.

Markets are also awaiting Friday’s release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Beijing’s Quiet Warning on Tokenization in Hong Kong

Separately, Reuters reported that China’s securities regulator has informally told some mainland brokerages to halt real-world asset (RWA) tokenization activities in Hong Kong, underscoring Beijing’s concerns over the rapid growth of digital products beyond its borders.

The guidance, issued in recent weeks, aimed to ensure such products are backed by genuine businesses and that risk management practices improve.

RWA tokenization involves converting traditional assets such as bonds or real estate into blockchain-based tokens. Hong Kong has been promoting the sector as part of its push to become a global digital finance hub, attracting Chinese brokerages looking to roll out new products.